Technical Analysis on Display

Patterns in the Stars

The idea that technical analysis of stocks – the extraction of useful trading data from various charts mapping share prices and other data – is actually anything more than a hangover from pre-computer days is generally scoffed at by those who spend their time number crunching. From these lofty heights chartists are generally regarded with the same distain as scientists reserve for astrologers.

Which may be justified, or not, but there’s one area where the human brain can still outperform microprocessors: the unconscious extraction of patterns from visual information. Is it, in fact, possible that technical analysts are simply using the brain’s unique pattern recognition capabilities to outwit the supercomputers?

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Cardano’s Gambit

Gamblers ‘Nonymous

Investing is, up to a point, gambling. Most of us don’t think of it in that way but if we conceive of the universe of stocks as a gas of randomly moving particles buffeted this way and that by forces largely beyond their – and certainly beyond our – control then there’s no other conclusion that can be drawn.

However, we don’t really believe this. What we generally believe is that although randomness is pervasive in stocks there’s a pattern that lies beneath the surface which we, in spite all evidence to the contrary, can pick out. For the idea that there are repeatable patterns hidden within apparently random games of chance we can thank one of our more unlikely heroes. Meet Girolamo Cardano, medieval physician, professional gambler and mathematician extraordinaire.

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