Blindsided by Brexit Bias

Unbalanced

The result of the UK’s referendum on the EU caught markets by surprise. They’d soared the previous day in the expectation of a Remain vote and were thrown into turmoil when it turned out a majority of the British were less concerned with economic stability and more with mass immigration.

The polls leading up to the referendum were finely balanced; if they were to be believed then the result was far from certain right up to the end. Yet many people took the market surge at face value – that markets were pricing in known information -  and that a Remain vote was in the bag. But it wasn’t, and the whole thing is behavioural bias writ large. Not that anyone will actually learn the lessons of course.

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A Lollapalooza Effect – Capitalism & The Death of Wang Yue

Morality and Cuture

Wang Yue, a two-year old Chinese girl, has died after she was run down in the street, then run over again as the driver made off, then ignored by eighteen passers-by and a collection of market traders while she lay injured, before being hit again by another driver who also drove away before, finally, someone pulled her to safety. These events, caught on video by a security camera, have started a furious debate in China over whether the pursuit of profit has destroyed the country’s morality.

More likely, though, is that we’re seeing what happens when multiple behavioural effects combine in the same direction to create a lollapalooza cascade of otherwise inexplicable behavior. For while we may have basic moral principles these can be set aside if our culture encourages us so to do and, if that culture actually provides incentives for us to do so, what you get is children left to die in the street while people walk by.

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