Soros’ Economic Reflexivity

Feedback in Cause and Effect

Social Psychology 101 stresses the interconnectedness of cause and effect in human mediated systems. It’s not just that cause begets effect but effect then begets cause which begets effect which … yeah, well, you get the idea.

The investor George Soros has taken this idea and used it to become mindbogglingly rich. He sees behavioral economics as only one part of a better description of our financial system: it explains how causes create effects but not how they feedback on each other. To explain that we need to look at what he calls economic reflexivity.

Read Full Post >>

Arbitraging Embeddedness

Society, Sublimely

Although the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher once opined that “there is no such thing as society”, society generally begs to disagree. Indeed British society, enraged by her insistence on an unrepresentative and unfair tax, combined to help force her from power. In reality we’re all sublimely swimming along in a swirling pool of social relationships, which drag us unwittingly in various directions, while we blithely assume we’re actually in charge of our lives.

This is what sociologists study and economic sociologists, as you might expect, are particularly interested in how these social forces drive financial markets. Self-interest being what it is, it’s perhaps not surprising that they suggest that the behaviour of markets is less driven by individual behavioural biases and more by social factors. What’s more, they may even be right.

Read Full Post >>