Earnings forecasting is a triumph of accountancy over reality:
given the complexity of most corporations an accurate forecast of earnings is logically,
and numerically impossible. Yet corporations
guide and analysts analyse and, mostly, they all end up looking wise.
It’s all nonsense, of course. The economy is a complex adaptive system
comprised of billions of working parts.
The realistic chance of anybody predicting anything minutely accurate
about anything of any interest is approximately zero, to several decimal
points. As any weather forecaster could
tell you.
