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Showing posts with label edward miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label edward miller. Show all posts

Saturday, 27 March 2010

Save Our Short-Sellers

Short Selling Scapegoats

Whenever there’s some kind of major market crash and people start looking for handy scapegoats the usual line-up of suspects will include a preponderance of short-sellers, accused of unpatriotically selling stocks they don’t own in order to make windfall profits. It’s as though making a profit when everyone else is losing money suddenly becomes wrong. When times are tough it seems everyone’s a bleeding heart socialist.

Instead of banning short-selling regulators ought to be focusing on what measures they could take to make it more popular. If you want markets to be roughly efficient and not to fly off on some behaviourally induced flight of fancy then you need intelligent investors to be able to short-sell over-valued stocks. Waiting until everything goes wrong and then artificially distorting the markets in order to apply a tiny band-aid to a market holed below the waterline by a bloody great iceberg of behavioural bias is to invert cause and effect. Short-selling doesn’t cause market crashes, people do.

Sunday, 14 June 2009

B.F. Skinner’s Stockmarket Slot Machines

Win Big, Win Rarely, Win Never

Psychologists have long trailed in the wake of retailers and gaming companies when it comes to understanding the triggers that make people spend money. Slot machines, for instance, rely on the effect of variable interval operant conditioning to increase their takings.

Or, to put it in English, they pay out only rarely but when they do they pay out big. Turns out this makes people gamble more. Those investors who like to run small portfolios and look for big returns should take note.