Cursed By Momentum
Although most investors have no edge on the market there’s a proportion of them that persist in trading actively, the main effect of which is to enrich their brokers. There are various explanations of why this occurs, but it seems to come down to some combination of inherent overconfidence and a perverse refusal to take […]
Anchors A-weigh! [current_month] [current_year]
In these uncertain times, as the Covid-19 virus moves across the planet, we’re seeing markets yo-yoing with wild price fluctuations on almost a daily basis. Jumps or falls of over 5% are commonplace. This is not normal market behaviour. However, it isn’t unusual behaviour either – in the context of market history. Anyone who remembers […]
Markets are a Confidence Trick
Many investors are experiencing the real downside of stockmarkets for the first time. Suddenly they’re no longer placid, happy holiday resorts where riches gently roll to shore simply by waiting. A volcano has erupted and everyone is running around with their hair on fire stealing each other’s coconuts and hoarding pineapples. Of course, paradise always […]
The A to Z of Behavioral Bias
The A to Z of Behavioral Bias The A to Z of Behavioral Bias is (surprise, surprise!) an A to Z list of common behavioral biases with brief descriptions, examples, causes, possible mitigations and suggested further reading. This isn’t intended to be a comprehensive list of biases – The Big List of Behavioral Biases is […]
The Zeitgeist Investor
PsyFi Search The Zeitgeist Investor The Zeitgeist Investor: A Psy-Fi Blog E-book The Zeitgeist Investor is a time-bending look at how behavioral bias and market cycles interact to cause investors to do strange things. Different times call for different approaches, but sometimes timeless approaches are the best. For the endnotes to the e-book go to: The […]
The Latticework
PsyFi Search The Latticework The Psy-Fi Blog is dedicated to discussing finance and psychology and their links with physics, history, statistics, risk management, anthropology, biology, genetics, neurology, ethics, philosophy, mathematics, technology and anything else I can think of. See Mental Models, Arrayed on Charlie Munger’s Latticework and then follow the links to start to array […]
The Big List of Behavioral Biases
PsyFi Search The Big List of Behavioral Biases See One Long Argument: A Big List of Behavioral Biases, as an introduction to this ever-growing list of irrational or, at least, slightly odd behaviours in the sphere of investment: Action Bias: we have an urge to action in situations where doing nothing would be more rational: see […]
PFB Book Reviews
PsyFi Search PFB Book Reviews A list of book reviews on the Psy-Fi Blog: John Kay’s Obliquity: Why trying to solve problems directly isn’t a good idea and why economic models are always bound to be wrong. Models. Behaving Badly. by Emanuel Derman; models in finance aren’t the same as theories in physics. Robert Cialdini […]
The Psy-Fi Blog Reading List
PsyFi Search The Psy-Fi Blog Reading List A list of books I’d recommend for investors. Not all are directly related to investing but all have something useful to say about the subject. Clicking through to your local Amazon website from here earns the blog some cash which gets spent on more books to create more […]
Behavioral Bias 101
PsyFi Search Behavioral Bias 101 Or: 101 Ways To Lose Money. #1: Illusory Pattern Recognition #2: Wishful Thinking #3: Curse of Knowledge 0 comments No comments: Post a Comment Home Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)