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Showing posts with label monty hall problem. Show all posts
Showing posts with label monty hall problem. Show all posts

Wednesday, 21 April 2010

Monty Hall Economics

God and the Economists

Apparently the Monty Hall test is one that Wall Street firms commonly use to see if potential applicants are suitable material for the madness that is a trading desk in the heartlands of financeland. In so using the test these corporations are, knowingly or not, addressing some of the most hard to overcome behavioural biases that often defeat legions of unprepared investors.

In fact, this particular test has been a source of delight for grant seeking academics of all persuasions. The thing is that the Monty Hall test can be explained in many different ways, most of them simultaneously contradictory. However, it does increasingly look like this blatantly irrational behaviour is hard-wired into our neurons. It seems God really doesn’t like economists.